Elderly employees have little reason to worry about the impending presence of robots

Insights from history demonstrate that the influence of technology on employment diverges from widely held beliefs.

We need to address the speed and nature of economic transformation. Traditionally, technology is viewed as a force driving rapid change, potentially displacing older workers as robots become more prevalent.

Such transformations can indeed occur, especially when influenced by factors beyond technology. An illustrative example is the swift decline of the coal mining industry, characterized by job losses and difficulties in finding new employment. However, assuming that all changes mirror this scenario may not accurately depict today’s reality. If anything, the pace of economic change is slowing down rather than accelerating. The growth rate in some sectors and the contraction of others has actually reached a nine-decade low, with the turbulent 1980s a distant memory.

The nature of economic transformation challenges our commonly held narratives. Recent studies delve into the fate of “teamsters,” who steered animal-drawn wagons in 19th-century America, following the advent of motorized trucks. These studies draw parallels for contemporary drivers facing automated trucks.

Certainly, the number of teamsters declined, but notably, the average age increased. Why did this happen? Primarily due to a lack of younger workers entering the field. In the UK, this phenomenon explains why the count of workers in their 60s employed in manufacturing was higher in 2018-19 than in 1994-95, despite a 38% decline in manufacturing jobs. Older workers persist in diminishing sectors, while younger ones seek alternative opportunities.

Economic transitions can present notable challenges, especially when they unfold swiftly. However, it is essential to update our outlook on these changes. In reality, substantial economic shifts are scarce in 21st-century Britain, and when they do happen, younger workers generally foresee and adjust to them.